First rule of predicting Oscar winners: Don’t let your emotions get you. It’s all a game. It’s no longer about what’s the best movie of the year anymore (that belongs to Please Give), it’s about who’s due, who’s “in”, who has more connection *cough*Weinstein*cough*. However, you just never know with the Oscar so we just have to watch the show and expect the unexpected. Here’s what I think should/will win this year:
Should & will win: Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
Why: should’ve won last year with A Single Man and he’s also due for the golden statue
Potential upset: None. Really, nobody else can win this category.
Will win: Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Should win: Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right
Why: Portman is definitely “in” at the moment. She’s so likeable, pregnant, and Hollywood loves her physical transformation. I feel bad for Bening. Her performance was subtle, nuanced, underrated. Maybe next time.
Potential upset: it’s a two-way race between Portman & Bening so Bening might pull an upset, which for me is a “yay!” moment.
Best Supporting Actor
Should & will win: Christian Bale – The Fighter
Why: He never even been nominated before! His infamous physical transformation in various roles in the past made him overdue for an Oscar
Potential upset: Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech (if the movie does a sweep)
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Should win: Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Why: The AMPAS loves recognizing young talents in the Best Supporting category (e.g., Tatum O’Neal, Anna Paquin.) and since Christian Bale is a lock, this is the wild-card category. Steinfeld was outstanding in the movie and her character felt more like a lead to me so I think she’ll take this one from the (also excellent) veteran actor Melissa Leo.
Potential Upset: Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech (again, if the movie does a sweet)
Best Animated Feature
Should & will win: Toy Story 3
Why: Really? I thought this was the first animated film that actually has a chance in winning Best Picture.
Should & will win: David Fincher – The Social Network
Why: He’s way overdue. He’s made amazing movies (Seven, Fight Club) and his next work is the remake of The Girl with The Dragon Tattoo. Can’t beat that.
Potential upset: Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech. Super slim chance but possible.
Will win: The King’s Speech
Should win: The Social Network
Why: The last time a movie that won DGA, PGA, and SAG but lost the Oscar was in 2005 when Crash pulled an upset over Brokeback Mountain. Before that was Gladiator over Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon in 2000. Then it was Braveheart over Apollo 13 wayyy back in 1996. Notice the pattern? I’m actually really hoping for an upset again this year. My beef is that I think The King’s Speech is a feel-good made-for-TV movie. I’m afraid the Oscar will go for the conventional, safe choice. I long for the day when Oscar goes to a movie that speaks to younger generation. I love James Franco & Anne Hathaway, LOVE those promos! When they announced the hosts, performers, etc., I was sure that Oscar was going for the young generation and that The Social Network was going to win Best Picture. I have to say, I’ll be very gladly lose my Oscar prediction game if The Social Network takes the golden statue home. I didn’t get my emotions get to me when I’m predicting this game.